Combat Edge Intelligence

Cameron Smotherman vs Phil Caracappa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Metro Fight ClubTeamDante Rivera BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cameron SmothermanNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581
Phil CaracappaNow 1596
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
2.93
37%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.07
59%
Strike defense
29%
0
Takedown avg.
1
TBD
Takedown accuracy
8%
63%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Cameron SmothermanPhil Caracappa
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
1 (8%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (42%)
Decision
9 (82%)

Combat Edge model read

Cameron Smotherman59%
Phil Caracappa 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Cameron Smotherman a 59% favorite over Phil Caracappa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1597 vs 1596), separated by just 1 points.

Cameron Smotherman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cameron Smotherman finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Phil Caracappa 18%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.