Combat Edge Intelligence

Cameron Stewart vs Naoki Matsushita

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

1-3-0Record12-16-11
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Team Sure GripTeamMB3z

What's at stake

Cameron Stewart is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Naoki Matsushita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cameron StewartNow 1461
If they win+22→ 1483
If they lose-26→ 1435
Naoki MatsushitaNow 1432
If they win+13→ 1445
If they lose-11→ 1421

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cameron StewartNaoki Matsushita
1450150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
1 (100%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
7 (58%)

Combat Edge model read

Cameron Stewart70%
Naoki Matsushita 30%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Cameron Stewart a 70% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Cameron Stewart holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1461 to 1432, a 29-point edge.

Naoki Matsushita 42%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.