Combat Edge Intelligence

Caolán Loughran vs Muin Gafurov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record20-7-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
68"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Team KaobonTeamTaj-Fighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Caolán LoughranNow 1660
If they win+16→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1644
Muin GafurovNow 1660
If they win+16→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1644

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.87
Sig. strikes / min
2.89
45%
Strike accuracy
46%
5.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
55%
Strike defense
53%
5
Takedown avg.
1.47
42%
Takedown accuracy
26%
0%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Caolán LoughranMuin Gafurov
1650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
10 (50%)
3 (27%)
Submission
7 (35%)
3 (27%)
Decision
3 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Caolán Loughran51%
Muin Gafurov 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Caolán Loughran a 51% favorite over Muin Gafurov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1660), separated by just 0 points.

Caolán Loughran finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Muin Gafurov 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.