Carl Seumanutafa vs Matheus Scheffel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-16-0Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
261 lbsWeight262 lbs
Skrap PackTeamCM System
What's at stake
Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carl Seumanutafa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1495
If they lose-11→ 1471
If they win+11→ 1532
If they lose-13→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carl SeumanutafaMatheus Scheffel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Scheffel72%
Carl Seumanutafa 28%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 72% favorite over Carl Seumanutafa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1482, a 39-point edge.
Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Carl Seumanutafa finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Scheffel 71%.
Carl Seumanutafa and Matheus Scheffel share 2 common opponents: Renan Ferreira and Ante Delija.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.