Combat Edge Intelligence

Carla Esparza vs Julia Polastri

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record14-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'2"
63"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamCWB Fighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carla EsparzaNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Julia PolastriNow 1648
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.19
Sig. strikes / min
6.40
39%
Strike accuracy
55%
2.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.40
54%
Strike defense
57%
3.28
Takedown avg.
0.73
36%
Takedown accuracy
80%
47%
Takedown defense
61%
0.27
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Carla EsparzaJulia Polastri
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
4 (21%)
Submission
3 (21%)
11 (58%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Julia Polastri63%
Carla Esparza 37%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Julia Polastri a 63% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carla Esparza's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1648), separated by just 9 points.

Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Julia Polastri 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.