Combat Edge Intelligence

Carla Esparza vs Livinha Souza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Livinha Souza
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Livinha Souza

“The Brazilian Gangster”

14-4-0StrawweightUFC

1652Good

Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record14-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'4"
63"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamTeam Maximo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carla EsparzaNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Livinha SouzaNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.19
Sig. strikes / min
1.75
39%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.60
54%
Strike defense
57%
3.28
Takedown avg.
2.54
36%
Takedown accuracy
46%
47%
Takedown defense
40%
0.27
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Carla EsparzaLivinha Souza
1650170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
4 (21%)
Submission
8 (57%)
11 (58%)
Decision
4 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Livinha Souza56%
Carla Esparza 44%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Livinha Souza a 56% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carla Esparza's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1652), separated by just 5 points.

Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Livinha Souza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Livinha Souza 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.