Carlos Condit vs Sam Patterson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record14-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'4"
75"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeam Crossface
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1742
If they lose-12→ 1718
If they win+16→ 1745
If they lose-16→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditSam Patterson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Patterson71%
Carlos Condit 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Patterson a 71% favorite over Carlos Condit in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carlos Condit's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1730 vs 1729), separated by just 1 points.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.
Sam Patterson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.