Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Hernandez vs Geane Herrera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record10-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
67"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
VFS AcademyTeamBanks MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlos HernandezNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Geane HerreraNow 1623
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.90
Sig. strikes / min
1.51
46%
Strike accuracy
31%
3.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.07
51%
Strike defense
53%
1.60
Takedown avg.
0.83
21%
Takedown accuracy
38%
68%
Takedown defense
38%
0.18
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Carlos HernandezGeane Herrera
160016502016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
4 (40%)
Submission
6 (60%)
6 (60%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlos Hernandez53%
Geane Herrera 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Hernandez a 53% favorite over Geane Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1623), separated by just 4 points.

Carlos Hernandez finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Geane Herrera 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.