Carlos Vera vs Rinya Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
69"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
50-50 BJJTeamFreelance· 1552 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Carlos Vera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1636
If they lose-13→ 1604
If they win+13→ 1702
If they lose-19→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos VeraRinya Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinya Nakamura78%
Carlos Vera 22%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 78% favorite over Carlos Vera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1617, a 72-point edge.
Carlos Vera finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.