Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlton Minus vs Rafaello Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record17-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Avalanche Wrestling AssociationTeamAMA Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlton MinusNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Rafaello OliveiraNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.50
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
40%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
50%
Strike defense
59%
0
Takedown avg.
2.49
0%
Takedown accuracy
37%
59%
Takedown defense
11%
0
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Carlton MinusRafaello Oliveira
1600165020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
1 (7%)
Submission
5 (33%)
3 (21%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carlton Minus and Rafaello Oliveira within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1601), separated by just 2 points.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carlton Minus finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.