Combat Edge Intelligence

Carmelo Marrero vs Dmitriy Aryshev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record15-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
255 lbsWeight187 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSech Pro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carmelo MarreroNow 1650
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Dmitriy AryshevNow 1652
If they win+12→ 1664
If they lose-12→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.84
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
34%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
3.21
Takedown avg.
TBD
37%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
36%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.87
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Carmelo MarreroDmitriy Aryshev
1650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (19%)
KO/TKO
12 (80%)
7 (44%)
Submission
2 (13%)
6 (38%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Dmitriy Aryshev62%
Carmelo Marrero 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dmitriy Aryshev a 62% favorite over Carmelo Marrero in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1652), separated by just 2 points.

Carmelo Marrero enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Carmelo Marrero finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Dmitriy Aryshev 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.