Cesar Gracie vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'1"
TBDReachTBD
181 lbsWeight185 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Cesar Gracie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Marcio Alexandre Junior carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1509
If they lose-25→ 1461
If they win+25→ 1492
If they lose-23→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1701 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cesar Gracie63%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 37%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Cesar Gracie a 63% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Cesar Gracie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1486 to 1467, a 19-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.