Combat Edge Intelligence

Chersi Dudaev vs Roger Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-4-0Record8-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'4"
-ReachTBD
172 lbsWeight186 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamEvolve MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chersi DudaevNow 1681
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665
Roger GracieNow 1681
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.80
TBD
Strike accuracy
41%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.73
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chersi DudaevRoger Gracie
165017002014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
8 (44%)
Submission
6 (75%)
8 (44%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Chersi Dudaev57%
Roger Gracie 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Chersi Dudaev a 57% favorite over Roger Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1681), separated by just 0 points.

Roger Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Chersi Dudaev finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Roger Gracie 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.