Chris Avila vs Kenji Arai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-9-0Record15-15-5
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'9"
39,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight144 lbs
Cesar Gracie Fight TeamTeamPANCRASEism
What's at stake
Chris Avila is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Kenji Arai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1509
If they lose-18→ 1477
If they win+13→ 1475
If they lose-11→ 1451
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Avila79%
Kenji Arai 21%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Avila a 79% favorite over Kenji Arai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Chris Avila holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1495 to 1462, a 33-point edge.
Kenji Arai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Avila finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Kenji Arai 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.