Chris Birchler vs Jesse Murray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-4-0Record10-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
TBDReach78"
205 lbsWeight206 lbs
AllStar BJJTeamStrongstyle MMA
What's at stake
Jesse Murray is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Chris Birchler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1548
If they lose-15→ 1516
If they win+15→ 1565
If they lose-17→ 1533
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris BirchlerJesse Murray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesse Murray62%
Chris Birchler 38%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesse Murray a 62% favorite over Chris Birchler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Jesse Murray holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1550 to 1531, a 19-point edge.
Chris Birchler enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Birchler finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Jesse Murray 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.