Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Heatherly vs Conor McCarthy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record6-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
180 lbsWeight158 lbs
Fit or FightTeamSBG Naas

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris HeatherlyNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Conor McCarthyNow 1606
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.68
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
48%
Strike accuracy
TBD
8.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
52%
Strike defense
TBD
4.21
Takedown avg.
TBD
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
100%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris HeatherlyConor McCarthy
1550160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
3 (50%)
4 (44%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (44%)
Decision
3 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Conor McCarthy60%
Chris Heatherly 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Conor McCarthy a 60% favorite over Chris Heatherly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1606), separated by just 2 points.

Chris Heatherly finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Conor McCarthy 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.