Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Heatherly vs Themba Gorimbo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record14-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'1"
TBDReach77"
180 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fit or FightTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris HeatherlyNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Themba GorimboNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.68
Sig. strikes / min
2.72
48%
Strike accuracy
61%
8.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.32
52%
Strike defense
52%
4.21
Takedown avg.
5.07
50%
Takedown accuracy
66%
100%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Chris HeatherlyThemba Gorimbo
160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
4 (44%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (44%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Themba Gorimbo59%
Chris Heatherly 41%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Themba Gorimbo a 59% favorite over Chris Heatherly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1608), separated by just 4 points.

Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Chris Heatherly finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Themba Gorimbo 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.