Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Lytle vs Gunnar Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chris Lytle
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Chris Lytle

“Lights Out”

31-18-5WelterweightB2GS

1706Good

Tale of the tape

31-18-5Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
TBDReach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Integrated Fighting AcademyTeamMjolnir

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris LytleNow 1706
If they win+12→ 1718
If they lose-12→ 1694
Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.76
Sig. strikes / min
1.77
45%
Strike accuracy
61%
3.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
58%
Strike defense
49%
0.70
Takedown avg.
2
55%
Takedown accuracy
52%
55%
Takedown defense
68%
2.36
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Chris LytleGunnar Nelson
1650170020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (19%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
19 (61%)
Submission
13 (68%)
6 (19%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Gunnar Nelson68%
Chris Lytle 32%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 68% favorite over Chris Lytle in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1706 vs 1709), separated by just 3 points.

Chris Lytle finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.