Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Tuchscherer vs Junior dos Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-4-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
TBDReach77"
260 lbsWeight250 lbs
Academy of Combat ArtsTeamChampion Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chris TuchschererNow 1651
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Junior dos SantosNow 1642
If they win+12→ 1654
If they lose-12→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1602 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.35
Sig. strikes / min
4.49
32%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
47%
Strike defense
56%
1.19
Takedown avg.
0.30
18%
Takedown accuracy
50%
0%
Takedown defense
82%
0.59
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Chris TuchschererJunior dos Santos
165017001750200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (57%)
KO/TKO
16 (70%)
4 (19%)
Submission
1 (4%)
5 (24%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Combat Edge model read

Junior dos Santos61%
Chris Tuchscherer 39%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Junior dos Santos a 61% favorite over Chris Tuchscherer in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Tuchscherer's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1642), separated by just 9 points.

Chris Tuchscherer enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Chris Tuchscherer finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.