Combat Edge Intelligence

Ciaran Clarke vs Nkosi Ndebele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'10"
66"Reach75"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamNova MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ciaran ClarkeNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Nkosi NdebeleNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ciaran ClarkeNkosi Ndebele
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
5 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (40%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Ciaran Clarke and Nkosi Ndebele within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1671), separated by just 2 points.

Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Ciaran Clarke finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 64%.

Nkosi Ndebele carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.