Combat Edge Intelligence

Clay Collard vs Josh Culibao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-13-0Record11-4-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73.00"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Four7 Training CenterTeamIgor MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Clay CollardNow 1635
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Josh CulibaoNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.22
Sig. strikes / min
3.41
32%
Strike accuracy
45%
5
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.04
51%
Strike defense
60%
2.81
Takedown avg.
0
39%
Takedown accuracy
0%
71%
Takedown defense
66%
0.51
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Clay CollardJosh Culibao
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

12 (48%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
3 (12%)
Submission
1 (9%)
10 (40%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Culibao60%
Clay Collard 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Culibao a 60% favorite over Clay Collard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1637), separated by just 2 points.

Clay Collard enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Josh Culibao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Clay Collard finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Josh Culibao 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.