Clay Harvison vs Nonato Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-9-0Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
160 lbsWeight161 lbs
Madhouse TrainingTeamGameness Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1541
If they lose-16→ 1509
If they win+12→ 1537
If they lose-12→ 1513
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay HarvisonNonato Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nonato Junior70%
Clay Harvison 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nonato Junior a 70% favorite over Clay Harvison in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Clay Harvison's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1525 vs 1525), separated by just 0 points.
Nonato Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Clay Harvison finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Nonato Junior 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.