Combat Edge Intelligence

Cody Garbrandt vs Nkosi Ndebele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-8-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'10"
65" Reach75"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamNova MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cody GarbrandtNow 1671
If they win+12→ 1683
If they lose-12→ 1659
Nkosi NdebeleNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.79
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
59%
Strike defense
TBD
0.85
Takedown avg.
TBD
23%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
82%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cody GarbrandtNkosi Ndebele
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (73%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (27%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Cody Garbrandt and Nkosi Ndebele within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1671), separated by just 0 points.

Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Cody Garbrandt finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 64%.

Nkosi Ndebele carries a 10-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.