Colton Smith vs Kaiwen Li
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record12-6-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight150 lbs
VanguardTeamK-1 Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colton SmithKaiwen Li
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Colton Smith and Kaiwen Li within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1564), separated by just 4 points.
Kaiwen Li enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.