Connor Matthews vs Harris Sarmiento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-4-0Record36-26-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
71"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamHawaii Elite MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
If they win+12→ 1576
If they lose-12→ 1552
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Connor MatthewsHarris Sarmiento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Connor Matthews54%
Harris Sarmiento 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Connor Matthews a 54% favorite over Harris Sarmiento in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Harris Sarmiento's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1564), separated by just 2 points.
Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Harris Sarmiento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Harris Sarmiento 39%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.