Combat Edge Intelligence

Connor Matthews vs Mohammad Yahya

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record12-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
71"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lakeville MMA & FitnessTeamTK MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Connor MatthewsNow 1562
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
Mohammad YahyaNow 1565
If they win+16→ 1581
If they lose-16→ 1549

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.08
Sig. strikes / min
3.50
43%
Strike accuracy
40%
6.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.39
56%
Strike defense
43%
3.46
Takedown avg.
0.50
56%
Takedown accuracy
20%
50%
Takedown defense
43%
0.69
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Connor MatthewsMohammad Yahya
155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
7 (58%)
5 (71%)
Submission
2 (17%)
1 (14%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Mohammad Yahya60%
Connor Matthews 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mohammad Yahya a 60% favorite over Connor Matthews in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1565), separated by just 3 points.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mohammad Yahya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Mohammad Yahya 75%.

Mohammad Yahya carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.