Combat Edge Intelligence

Conor McCarthy vs James Head

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record9-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
158 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG NaasTeamR-1 MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Conor McCarthyNow 1607
If they win+24→ 1631
If they lose-24→ 1583
James HeadNow 1603
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.75
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.11
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.41
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.82

Trajectory

Conor McCarthyJames Head
155016001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (44%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (33%)
3 (50%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Conor McCarthy66%
James Head 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Conor McCarthy a 66% favorite over James Head in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1603), separated by just 4 points.

James Head enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Conor McCarthy finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, James Head 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.