Combat Edge Intelligence

Conor McCarthy vs Matt Serra

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Serra
us

Matt Serra

“The Terror”

11-7-0WelterweightUFC

1605Solid

Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'6"
-Reach68"
158 lbsWeight170 lbs
SBG NaasTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Conor McCarthyNow 1606
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582
Matt SerraNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.98
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.64
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.05
TBD
Takedown accuracy
21%
TBD
Takedown defense
39%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.89

Trajectory

Conor McCarthyMatt Serra
155016001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (45%)
3 (50%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Conor McCarthy60%
Matt Serra 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Conor McCarthy a 60% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1605), separated by just 1 points.

Conor McCarthy finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.