Conor McCarthy vs Ricky Rainey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record13-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
-Reach43,5"
158 lbsWeight171 lbs
SBG NaasTeamRenegade Fighting Systems
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1630
If they lose-24→ 1582
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Conor McCarthyRicky Rainey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McCarthy66%
Ricky Rainey 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McCarthy a 66% favorite over Ricky Rainey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1603), separated by just 3 points.
Ricky Rainey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Conor McCarthy finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Rainey 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.