Combat Edge Intelligence

Cornel Thompson vs Willamy Freire

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record26-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
68"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TBDTeamDragon Fight

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cornel ThompsonNow 1626
If they win+16→ 1642
If they lose-16→ 1610
Willamy FreireNow 1625
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.53
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.93
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.50
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
74%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Cornel ThompsonWillamy Freire
155016001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
8 (32%)
1 (9%)
Submission
10 (40%)
9 (82%)
Decision
7 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Cornel Thompson70%
Willamy Freire 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Cornel Thompson a 70% favorite over Willamy Freire in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1626 vs 1625), separated by just 1 points.

Cornel Thompson enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Cornel Thompson finishes 18% of wins inside the distance, Willamy Freire 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.