Combat Edge Intelligence

Costello van Steenis vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77"Reach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA VlaardingenTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Costello van SteenisNow 1746
If they win+16→ 1762
If they lose-16→ 1730
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
TBD
Strike accuracy
41%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
TBD
Strike defense
53%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.10
TBD
Takedown accuracy
27%
TBD
Takedown defense
31%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Costello van SteenisThales Leites
170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
8 (47%)
Submission
15 (54%)
3 (18%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Costello van Steenis73%
Thales Leites 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Costello van Steenis a 73% favorite over Thales Leites in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1746 vs 1744), separated by just 2 points.

Costello van Steenis enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Costello van Steenis finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.