Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Dave Kaplan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dave Kaplan
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Dave Kaplan

“Diamond”

3-4-0LightweightTPF

1453Average

Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record3-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamTeam Tompkins

What's at stake

Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Dave Kaplan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+23→ 1497
If they lose-25→ 1449
Dave KaplanNow 1453
If they win+25→ 1478
If they lose-23→ 1430

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.88
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.32
TBD
Strike defense
68%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.88
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.70

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraDave Kaplan
1450150020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (33%)
1 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira75%
Dave Kaplan 25%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 75% favorite over Dave Kaplan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1453, a 21-point edge.

Dave Kaplan 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.