Cristiano Oliveira vs Gilbert Rael
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record1-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamTBD
What's at stake
Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Rael carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1495
If they lose-27→ 1447
If they win+27→ 1460
If they lose-21→ 1412
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cristiano OliveiraGilbert Rael
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cristiano Oliveira75%
Gilbert Rael 25%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 75% favorite over Gilbert Rael in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1433, a 41-point edge.
Gilbert Rael enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.