Cristiano Oliveira vs Kengo Ura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record14-13-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamIngram
What's at stake
Kengo Ura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Cristiano Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1499
If they lose-23→ 1451
If they win+11→ 1503
If they lose-13→ 1479
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cristiano OliveiraKengo Ura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cristiano Oliveira78%
Kengo Ura 22%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 78% favorite over Kengo Ura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kengo Ura's way (47%).
Kengo Ura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1492 to 1474, a 18-point edge.
Kengo Ura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kengo Ura 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.