Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Luan Duarte

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luan Duarte
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Luan Duarte

“Mao de Pedra”

14-12-0LightweightCWFC

1459Average

Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach-
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamTata Fight Team

What's at stake

Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Luan Duarte carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+23→ 1497
If they lose-25→ 1449
Luan DuarteNow 1459
If they win+17→ 1476
If they lose-15→ 1444

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraLuan Duarte
1450150020252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
12 (86%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (50%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira54%
Luan Duarte 46%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 54% favorite over Luan Duarte in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1459, a 15-point edge.

Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Luan Duarte 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.