Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Naoki Matsushita

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record12-16-11
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight154 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamMB3z

What's at stake

Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Naoki Matsushita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+21→ 1495
If they lose-27→ 1447
Naoki MatsushitaNow 1432
If they win+13→ 1445
If they lose-11→ 1421

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraNaoki Matsushita
1450150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (50%)
Decision
7 (58%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira83%
Naoki Matsushita 17%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 83% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1432, a 42-point edge.

Naoki Matsushita 42%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.