Cristiano Oliveira vs Sam Watford
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record4-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach78,0"
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Sam Watford carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1494
If they lose-28→ 1446
If they win+18→ 1439
If they lose-14→ 1407
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cristiano OliveiraSam Watford
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cristiano Oliveira71%
Sam Watford 29%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 71% favorite over Sam Watford in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1421, a 53-point edge.
Sam Watford enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sam Watford 50%.
Sam Watford carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.