Combat Edge Intelligence

Cristiano Oliveira vs Steve Lopez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

2-3-0Record13-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamSyndicate MMA

What's at stake

Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Steve Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cristiano OliveiraNow 1474
If they win+20→ 1494
If they lose-28→ 1446
Steve LopezNow 1417
If they win+28→ 1445
If they lose-20→ 1397

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.39
TBD
Strike accuracy
24%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.69
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
38%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Cristiano OliveiraSteve Lopez
14001450150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (38%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (23%)
1 (50%)
Decision
5 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Cristiano Oliveira83%
Steve Lopez 17%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 83% favorite over Steve Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1417, a 57-point edge.

Steve Lopez enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Steve Lopez 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.