Cristiano Oliveira vs TJ O'Brien
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-3-0Record20-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'2"
70"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Portugal Top TeamTeamDes Moines Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Cristiano Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — TJ O'Brien carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1497
If they lose-25→ 1449
If they win+25→ 1480
If they lose-23→ 1432
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cristiano OliveiraTJ O'Brien
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cristiano Oliveira78%
TJ O'Brien 22%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Cristiano Oliveira a 78% favorite over TJ O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Cristiano Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1455, a 19-point edge.
TJ O'Brien enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ O'Brien 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.