Combat Edge Intelligence

Curt Warburton vs Kaiwen Li

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Kaiwen Li
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Kaiwen Li

“The Underdog”

12-6-0LightweightRUFC

1564Solid

Tale of the tape

14-6-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight150 lbs
NEVTTeamK-1 Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Curt WarburtonNow 1567
If they win+16→ 1583
If they lose-16→ 1551
Kaiwen LiNow 1564
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1486 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.13
Sig. strikes / min
4.32
42%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.74
43%
Strike defense
54%
2.35
Takedown avg.
0.78
50%
Takedown accuracy
33%
83%
Takedown defense
92%
0.94
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Curt WarburtonKaiwen Li
1550160020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
7 (58%)
4 (29%)
Submission
1 (8%)
5 (36%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Curt Warburton54%
Kaiwen Li 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Curt Warburton a 54% favorite over Kaiwen Li in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1564), separated by just 3 points.

Kaiwen Li enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Curt Warburton finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.