Combat Edge Intelligence

César Almeida vs Doug Marshall

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record18-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Lotus MMATeamElite Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

César AlmeidaNow 1654
If they win+24→ 1678
If they lose-24→ 1630
Doug MarshallNow 1657
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1602 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.46
Sig. strikes / min
7.97
59%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.29
46%
Strike defense
62%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
52%
Takedown defense
0%
0.21
Submission avg.
6.29

Trajectory

César AlmeidaDoug Marshall
1600165017002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (71%)
KO/TKO
13 (72%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (17%)
2 (29%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

César Almeida72%
Doug Marshall 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes César Almeida a 72% favorite over Doug Marshall in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Doug Marshall's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1654 vs 1657), separated by just 3 points.

Doug Marshall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Doug Marshall 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.