Combat Edge Intelligence

Dakota Bush vs Luiz Firmino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-4-0Record20-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
73"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Smith PitTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dakota BushNow 1658
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
Luiz FirminoNow 1659
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.77
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
39%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
42%
Strike defense
TBD
2.40
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dakota BushLuiz Firmino
16001650170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (14%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
6 (43%)
Submission
7 (35%)
6 (43%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Dakota Bush56%
Luiz Firmino 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dakota Bush a 56% favorite over Luiz Firmino in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luiz Firmino's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1659), separated by just 1 points.

Dakota Bush enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Luiz Firmino enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dakota Bush finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Luiz Firmino 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.