Dakota Bush vs Matheus Camilo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-4-0Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach 69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Smith PitTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dakota BushMatheus Camilo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Camilo60%
Dakota Bush 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Camilo a 60% favorite over Dakota Bush in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dakota Bush's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1657), separated by just 1 points.
Dakota Bush enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Matheus Camilo enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Dakota Bush finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Camilo 64%.
Dakota Bush and Matheus Camilo share 2 common opponents: Jhonasky Sojo and Viacheslav Borshchev.
Dakota Bush carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
WinSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · 2024
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2024