Combat Edge Intelligence

Dalton Rosta vs Riki Fukuda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
75"ReachTBD
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGrabaka

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dalton RostaNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Riki FukudaNow 1670
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.45
TBD
Strike defense
64%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.60
TBD
Takedown accuracy
45%
TBD
Takedown defense
70%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dalton RostaRiki Fukuda
16501700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
12 (50%)
1 (9%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (55%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Dalton Rosta70%
Riki Fukuda 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dalton Rosta a 70% favorite over Riki Fukuda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Riki Fukuda's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1670), separated by just 1 points.

Dalton Rosta enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dalton Rosta finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Riki Fukuda 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.