Combat Edge Intelligence

Damian Janikowski vs Sam Spengler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-9-0Record9-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'11"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
NemesisTeamSmash Gyms

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Damian JanikowskiNow 1521
If they win+16→ 1537
If they lose-16→ 1505
Sam SpenglerNow 1525
If they win+16→ 1541
If they lose-16→ 1509

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Damian JanikowskiSam Spengler
14001450150015502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
2 (18%)
Submission
1 (11%)
4 (36%)
Decision
5 (56%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Spengler55%
Damian Janikowski 45%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Spengler a 55% favorite over Damian Janikowski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1525), separated by just 4 points.

Sam Spengler enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Damian Janikowski finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Sam Spengler 44%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.