Combat Edge Intelligence

Damian Janikowski vs Wataru Sakata

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-9-0Record11-14-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'9"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight178 lbs
NemesisTeamFreelance

What's at stake

Damian Janikowski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Wataru Sakata carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Damian JanikowskiNow 1521
If they win+15→ 1536
If they lose-17→ 1504
Wataru SakataNow 1496
If they win+13→ 1509
If they lose-11→ 1485

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Damian JanikowskiWataru Sakata
150015502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
2 (18%)
Submission
6 (60%)
4 (36%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Damian Janikowski75%
Wataru Sakata 25%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Damian Janikowski a 75% favorite over Wataru Sakata in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Damian Janikowski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1496, a 25-point edge.

Wataru Sakata enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Damian Janikowski finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Wataru Sakata 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.