Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Hardy vs Mike Graves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dan Hardy

Dan Hardy

“The Outlaw”

25-10-0WelterweightUFC

1684Good

Tale of the tape

25-10-0Record11-1-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
74"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Rough HouseTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dan HardyNow 1684
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
Mike GravesNow 1683
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.25
35%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.47
51%
Strike defense
59%
0.73
Takedown avg.
4.80
35%
Takedown accuracy
52%
35%
Takedown defense
67%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Dan HardyMike Graves
165017002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (56%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
2 (8%)
Submission
3 (27%)
9 (36%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Graves68%
Dan Hardy 32%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Graves a 68% favorite over Dan Hardy in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Hardy's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1683), separated by just 1 points.

Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Mike Graves enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Dan Hardy finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Mike Graves 73%.

Dan Hardy carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.