Daniel Jolly vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-5-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height-
75,0"Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rubicon Fight SportTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
Daniel Jolly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1508
If they lose-17→ 1476
If they win+26→ 1497
If they lose-22→ 1449
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel JollyMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke66%
Daniel Jolly 34%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 66% favorite over Daniel Jolly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Jolly's way (47%).
Daniel Jolly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1493 to 1471, a 22-point edge.
Daniel Jolly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Daniel Jolly finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.