Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Lacerda vs Marcos Vinicius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record1-3-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight115 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamZe Mario Team

What's at stake

Daniel Lacerda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel LacerdaNow 1507
If they win+12→ 1519
If they lose-20→ 1487
Marcos ViniciusNow 1429
If they win+29→ 1458
If they lose-19→ 1410

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
46%
Strike accuracy
49%
8.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
35%
Strike defense
47%
2.32
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
25%
1.16
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Daniel LacerdaMarcos Vinicius
145015001550202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
7 (58%)
Submission
1 (100%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Lacerda62%
Marcos Vinicius 38%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Lacerda a 62% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Daniel Lacerda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1507 to 1429, a 78-point edge.

Marcos Vinicius enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Daniel Lacerda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.