Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Lacerda vs Nick Garcia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-6-0Record9-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
70"Reach70,0"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamBlackline MMA

What's at stake

Daniel Lacerda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Nick Garcia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel LacerdaNow 1507
If they win+15→ 1522
If they lose-17→ 1490
Nick GarciaNow 1479
If they win+26→ 1505
If they lose-22→ 1457

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.95
Sig. strikes / min
3.97
46%
Strike accuracy
43%
8.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.36
35%
Strike defense
61%
2.32
Takedown avg.
3.38
50%
Takedown accuracy
44%
0%
Takedown defense
75%
1.16
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Daniel LacerdaNick Garcia
15001550201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

5 (42%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
7 (58%)
Submission
6 (67%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Garcia59%
Daniel Lacerda 41%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Garcia a 59% favorite over Daniel Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Daniel Lacerda's way (46%).

Daniel Lacerda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1507 to 1479, a 28-point edge.

Daniel Lacerda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nick Garcia 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.